Corn slid into the long weekend as the crude crash bled the row-crop complex of its risk premium — cheaper energy means softer ethanol economics and a lighter bid under new-crop bushels.

The tape stayed rangebound in the mid-410s, settling near the low end of the week's range after failing at 422.

A largely benign Midwest forecast — timely rains, no lasting heat dome — keeps the trade leaning on a fat national yield.

So what: if you've still got old-crop in the bin, this is a grind-lower tape, not a wait-for-the-rally one — basis is your friend more than the board right now.

Watch: tonight's Crop Progress rating and Thursday's Export Sales, plus anything the June 30 Acreage report whispers about corn-vs-bean ground.

Beans couldn't hold their China bid — USDA flashed fresh sales last week (a 132k-tonne China clip plus an unknown-destination tranche), but the crude collapse dragged the oilshare down and took beans with it.

The complex is in a tug-of-war: real demand underneath (old-crop sales hit a 12-week high) versus a macro unwind up top.

Soyoil's swoon did the downside heavy lifting — when biofuel-feedstock value craters, the crush math turns against the bean.

So what: the June 30 Acreage report is the whole ballgame — the trade expects a bean-acreage bump, and a bullish surprise there is the one catalyst that overrides crude.

Watch: China headlines and the Acreage number; a crude bounce plus another flash sale is the recipe for beans to snap back first.

Meal leaked lower with the board but was the relative winner of the crush — when oil gets hammered, meal carries more of the bean's value and cushions the drop.

It's still hovering near the psychological 300 line, with protein-feed demand holding the floor.

The board crush stayed positive even on an ugly day — a quiet tell that processors keep running hard.

So what: feeders and hog finishers get no relief yet; meal's stickiness keeps your ration costs firm even as oil tumbles.

Watch: the oilshare spread — if crude stabilizes and oil rebounds, meal gives back its relative gains fast.

Soyoil was the complex's biggest loser, off ~2% because it's leashed straight to crude — when WTI sheds 10% on the week, biodiesel feedstock rides the same elevator down.

It printed a fresh near-term low under 70 cents, unwinding weeks of the renewable-diesel premium.

This is the transmission belt between energy and the farm — oil is where the Iran-deal crude shock actually reaches your bean basis.

So what: the oilshare unwind is a direct hit to new-crop bean value — soyoil weakness is doing more damage to your bottom line than the bean headline suggests.

Watch: crude's next move and any biofuel-policy noise — oil bounces hardest if WTI finds a floor.

Chicago wheat slipped back below 606, handing back part of last week's rally as the macro risk-off swept grains and the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed.

A stronger greenback is wheat's kryptonite — it makes U.S. FOB offers dearer just as Black Sea supply stays cheap and plentiful.

The fade came on light holiday volume, so don't over-read a one-day dip after a constructive week.

So what: rallies into the 600s stay selling opportunities for SRW growers until the export pace says otherwise.

Watch: winter-wheat harvest progress in tonight's report and the dollar's trajectory — both cap any bounce.

KC slid with Chicago but kept its premium over SRW intact, the spread holding as Plains protein stays the relative scarcity story.

Harvest pressure is the near-term weight — combines are rolling through the southern Plains, and new-crop bushels are hitting a soft basis.

The moisture picture is mixed: enough rain to stall harvest in spots, not enough to change the protein math.

So what: if you're moving HRW off the combine, the board's soft — lean on protein premiums and basis, not flat price.

Watch: harvest pace, protein test weights, and whether the HRW-SRW spread widens as quality data lands.

Minneapolis spring wheat was the most resilient of the three boards, down only a couple of cents — the spring-wheat premium held while the winter boards bled.

The northern Plains / Prairie crop is in the ground and rated decently; timely showers keep the early-condition story benign.

Thin holiday volume (under 3,000 lots) means the small move is more drift than conviction.

So what: for HRS growers the relative hold is the bright spot in a red grain screen — the milling protein bid is your anchor.

Watch: spring-wheat Crop Progress tonight and the first real heat in the 6-10 day; the Minneapolis premium lives or dies on northern weather.

Oats basically sat out the selloff, idling near 313 on the thinnest volume on the board — a few hundred lots is a quiet day's gossip, not a market.

With no fresh North American supply news, the contract continues to take its cue from corn and the Prairie cash market.

The illiquidity cuts both ways — small orders swing it, so the flat print is as much absence-of-trade as agreement.

So what: for Prairie oat growers, cash bids and freight matter far more than this lightly-traded board.

Watch: corn's direction and any Prairie weather scare — that's what actually moves oat cash.

Canola took the lone fresh print of the long weekend, easing C$2.90 Friday as it tracked global veg-oil weakness — when soyoil and crude sink, canola rarely swims against it.

It held the 726 handle and stayed well inside its range — a relatively orderly fade, not a flush.

The loonie and crush margins remained supportive enough to keep the bleed shallow relative to the Chicago oilshare carnage.

So what: for Prairie growers, this is the home-crop barometer — canola is holding up better than soyoil, so your oilseed acres aren't taking the full crude hit.

Watch: Prairie weather (the June moisture story), the loonie, and soyoil — canola follows the veg-oil tape but trades its own crush.

No daily board for Alberta feed barley — it's a cash market, quoted delivered Lethbridge on a weekly cadence, so today it simply carries.

The standing tone: feedlot demand in the corridor sets the bid, and it's been rangebound with corn-import parity capping the top.

Cheap U.S. corn landing in southern Alberta keeps a lid on how high barley bids can run.

So what: feeders should pencil the corn-substitution math — when landed corn is cheaper than barley, the ration shifts.

Watch: the next weekly cash bid and the new-crop Prairie barley outlook as the season unfolds.

Crude barely budged Thursday, but the week is the story — WTI shed roughly 10% after the U.S.-Iran interim deal signalled the Strait of Hormuz stays open and the war premium drains out.

It settled in the mid-70s, miles below the spike highs, with the market repricing a world that isn't short barrels.

This is the engine under everything else on the board — the oilseed selloff, the soyoil rout, even part of the grain softness traces back to this one chart.

So what: cheaper crude is a margin gift for diesel-burning operations — your summer fuel bill just got friendlier, even as it pressures your bean oil.

Watch: the postponed Switzerland talks — if the Iran deal wobbles, the war premium snaps back and the whole complex re-rates higher.

Nat gas was the only green light on the board, up 2.2% as cooling demand and heat-driven power burn pulled against the broader energy selloff.

It reclaimed the $3.20 area, decoupling from crude's gloom — gas trades its own weather book, and summer heat is bullish.

Storage and LNG feedgas flows stayed supportive enough to keep buyers interested.

So what: for anyone exposed to grain-drying or irrigation power costs, firmer gas is a quiet headwind into summer.

Watch: Thursday's EIA storage number and the 6-10 day temp outlook — heat is the whole bull case.

Gold dropped 3.1%, its worst day in weeks, after new Fed chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75% but read hawkish — and pointedly withheld his dot, the first chair to do so in 14 years.

The market took the silence as a lean toward a hike: odds of a move by December jumped toward two-thirds, and the dollar ripped to a one-year high.

Higher-for-longer real yields are gold's natural enemy — it pays no carry, so it loses the rate fight every time the dollar wins.

So what: the metals break is a macro tell — the same hawkish-dollar move that sank gold is what's pressuring wheat and dollar-priced ag exports.

Watch: Fedspeak this week for any walk-back of Warsh's tone, and the dollar index — gold can't base until the buck cools.

Silver was the board's biggest mover, period — down a brutal 6.3%, roughly double gold's drop, as its high-beta nature turned the hawkish-Fed hit into a faceplant.

It sliced back under 67, unwinding a chunk of the recent industrial-plus-haven rally in a single session.

Silver always amplifies gold — leveraged on the way up, punished harder on the way down — and Thursday was the punishment.

So what: the violence here is the clearest risk-off receipt of the week; when silver drops 6% on a Fed read, it signals a broad macro repricing that touches every commodity desk.

Watch: whether silver stabilizes with gold or keeps overshooting — and the gold/silver ratio as a tell for flush-vs-trend-change.

Biggest mover: Silver -6.3% — the high-beta metal took the hawkish-Warsh Fed read on the chin, doubling gold's -3.1% and stamping a risk-off week.

Key driver: crude's ~10% weekly slide on the U.S.-Iran / Hormuz de-escalation is the engine under the oilseed selloff — soyoil, beans and canola all bent to it.

Watch this week: Crop Progress tonight sets the condition baseline, then the June 30 Acreage report looms as the one number that can override crude for beans — and the postponed Iran-Switzerland talks are the macro wildcard that could snap the war premium back into crude.